This project is led by climateprediction.net from the University of Oxford and contributes to the Met Office led Improving Climate Hazard Information work package of the UKCR Programme. Its aim is to better understand the sampling statistics of extremes in three winters that were amongst the hottest or wettest in the UKCP18 Global Projections. Could the extreme winters seen in UKCP18 have been higher or are they truly rare events? The dataset produced will add context to the understanding being developed within Met Office Work Package 2b on devising and applying approaches to convert weather and climate hazards to risks.
This study utilises the citizen science approach (see climateprediction.net), using volunteer computing resource from members of the public to run climate model simulations. For the three selected winters from UKCP18 Global, their sea surface temperature, sea ice patterns and atmospheric composition will be used to drive atmosphere-only simulations that are at the same resolution as UKPC18 Global and differ only in their initial conditions.
The main output will be a new dataset consisting of simulation data over the North Atlantic/European and UK domains. The data set will include approximately 1500 realisations of daily variables including daily maximum, mean, and minimum temperature, and daily averages of precipitation, mean sea level pressure, 850hPa temperature, wind components, geopotential height, and specific humidity, 500hPa geopotential height, and 250hPa wind components.
Once completed, the dataset will be made openly available with data in netcdf format using the metadata convention adopted for the UKCP18 Global projections.