Journal papers

Project: Climate Risk Indicators

• Arnell, N.W., Kay, A.L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2020 Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators. Climate Risk Management, 100265

• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R. 2021. The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK. Environmental Research Letters

• Arnell, N.W., and Freeman, A. 2021. The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK. Climatic Change

• Arnell, N., and Freeman, A. 2021. The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom. Climate Resilience and Sustainability

• Kay, A.L., Griffin, A., Rudd, A.C., Chapman, R.M., Bell, V.A. and Arnell, N.W. 2021. Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain. Advances in Water Resources, 151.
• Arnell, N.W. & Freeman, A. 2021. The impact of climate change on policy relevant indicators on temperature extremes in the United Kingdom. Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., Kay, A.L., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2021. Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming. Environmental Research Communications, 3.

Project: ClimaCare: Climate resilience of care settings

• Oikonomou, E., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., and Gupta, R., 2020. R104: ClimaCare: Climate resilience in care settings. CIBSE
• Ibbetson, A., Milojevic, A., Mavrogianni, A., Oikonomou, E., Jain, N., Tsoulou, I., Petrou, G., Gupta, R., Davies, M., Wilkinson, P., 2021. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat. Climate Risk Management, 100307

Project: ClimaCare: Governing the climate adaptation of care settings

• Oikonomou, E., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., and Gupta, R., 2020. R104: ClimaCare: Climate resilience in care settings. CIBSE
• Ibbetson, A., Milojevic, A., Mavrogianni, A., Oikonomou, E., Jain, N., Tsoulou, I., Petrou, G., Gupta, R., Davies, M., Wilkinson, P., 2021. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat. Climate Risk Management, 100307

Project: UK Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Research and Policy

• Pedde, Simona; Harrison, Paula A., Holman, Ian P., Powney, Gary D., Lofts, Stephen; Schmucki, Reto; Gramberger, Marc and Bulock, James M., 2021: Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment. 756, 143172
• O’Neill, Brian C. et al: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change. November 25 2020.

Project: Improving Climate Hazard Information

• Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., Kendon, E., 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. 33.
• Brown, S. J., 2020. Future changes in heatwave severity, duration and frequency due to climate change for the most populous cities. Weather and Climate Extremes. 30.
• McCarthy, M., Christidis, N., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D., Kay, G., Klein Tank, A., Lowe, J., Petch, J., Scaife, A., Stott, P., 2019, Drivers of the UK summer heatwave of 2018, Weather, 74, 11
• Kay, G., Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Dunbar, T., Eade, R., Scaife, A., 2020. Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 094099
• Thompson, V., Dunstone, N.J., Scaife, A.A. et al. 2017. High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate. Nat Commun 8, 107

Project: Improving Climate Hazard Information:Digitization of observations

• Craig, P.M. and Hawkins, E., 2020. Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900-1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal

Project: Coastal resilience in the face of sea level rise: Making the most of natural systems

• Masselink, G. and Lazarus, E.D., 2019. Defining coastal resilience. Water. 11. 
• Townend I.H., French J.R., Nicholls R.J., et al. 2021. Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England. Science of The Total Environment. 783: 146880

Project: IMPRES: Impacts and risk assessment to better inform resilience planning

• A T Kennedy-Asser, O Andrews, D M Mitchell and R F Warren, 2021 Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. 16 014039

Project: FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

• Xilin, X. et al. 2019. A full-scale fluvial flood modelling framework based on a high-performance integrated hydrodynamic modelling system (HiPIMS). Advances in Water Resources. 132.
• Li, Q. et al. 2020. A novel 1D-2D coupled model for hydrodynamic simulation of flows in drainage networks. Advances in Water Resources. 137.
• Dale Murray. 2021. Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods—a practitioner’s perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190550.
• Ming, X., Liang, Q., Xia, X., et al. 2020. Real-time flood forecasting based on a high-performance 2-D hydrodynamic model and numerical weather predictions. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR025583.
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219

Project: FRANTIC: Financial risk and the impact of climate change

• Mercure, JF. 2019. Toward risk-opportunity assessment in climate-friendly finance. One Earth. 1, pp. 395-398.
• Semieniuk, G, Campiglio, E, Mercure, J-F, Volz, U, Edwards, NR. 2021. Low-carbon transition risks for finance. WIREs Clim Change. 12:e678.

Project: Erosion hazards in river catchments: Making critical infrastructure more climate resilient 

• Li, X. et al. 2019. A stochastic approach to modelling tidal creek evolution: Exploring environmental influences on creek topologies through ensemble predictions. Geophysical Research Letters. 46, pp. 13836-13844.
• Li, X., Cooper, J.R., Plater, A. J. 2021. Quantifying erosion hazards and economic damage to critical infrastructure in river catchments: Impact of a warming climate. Climate Risk Management.

Project: From climate hazard to climate risk

• Kause, A. et al., 2020. Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: A qualitative systematic review. Environmental Research Letters DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb265
• Kause, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fung, F., Taylor, A., Lowe, J. et  al. 2020. Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study About User Perceptions.  Sustainability, 12 (7), 2955.
• Garry, F., Bernie, D., Davie, J., Pope, E. 2021. Future climate risks to UK agriculture from compound events. Climate Risk Management for inclusion in Special Issue on UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management.
• Hanlon, H.M., Bernie, D., Carigi, G. et al. Future changes to high impact weather in the UK. Climatic Change 166, 50 (2021).

Project: RESIL-RISK

• Survey Findings Report  (see also outputs for this project under Reports and Briefings)

Project: CROP-NET: Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields

• Wheeler, R., Lobley, M., 2021. Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders. Climate Risk Management, 100313

Project: STORMY-WEATHER: Plausible storm hazards in a future climate

• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Moron V., Barbero R., Fowler H.J. and Mishra V. 2021 Storm types in India: linking rainfall duration, spatial extent and intensity. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200137
• Lenderink G., de Vries H., Fowler H.J., et al. 2021. Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190544
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
• Catto, J. L., Dowdy, A. 2021. Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes. 32: 100313.

Project: Adaptation & Resilience: Planning & Action for Manchester

• O’Hare, P. (2021) Manchester’s climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards & vulnerability. Manchester, Manchester Climate Change Agency.

Project: A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters

• Gray, S.L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Ackerley, D. and Suri, D. 2020. Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters. Weather.

Project: DRAW-IT: Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management – Integrated & Interactive Tools

• Harou, J. J. 2019. Towards a national water resources planning framework in England. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Water Management. 172:6, 271-272.
• J.E. Tomlinson, J.H. Arnott, J.J. Harou. 2020. A water resource simulator in Python. Environmental Modelling & Software. Volume 126, 104635.
• Marzano, R., Rougé, C., Garrone, P., et al. 2020. Response of residential water demand to dynamic pricing: Evidence from an online experiment. Water Resources and Economics, Volume 32, 100169.
• Erfani, T., Pachos, K., Harou, J. J. 2020. Decision-dependent uncertainty in adaptive real-options water resource planning. Advances in Water Resources. Volume 136, 103490.

Project: Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of UK peatland systems

• Ritson, J. P., Alderson, D. M., Robinson, C. H., et al. 2021. Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of peatland ecosystem service provisioning – A research agenda. Science of The Total Environment. 759: 143467

Project: Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate

• Johnson, S., Yu, D. 2020. From flooding to finance: NHS ambulance-assisted evacuations of care home residents in Norfolk and Suffolk, UK. J Flood Risk Management. 13:e12592
• Yu, D., Yin, J., Wilby, R.L. et al. 2021. Disruption of emergency response to vulnerable populations during floods. Nat Sustain 3, 728–736