Journal papers

Project: CREWS-UK

• Nesbitt, A., Dorling, S., Jones, R., Smith, D.K.E., Krumins, M., Gannon, K.E., Dorling, L., Johnson, Z. and Conway, D. 2022. Climate change projections for UK viticulture to 2040: a focus on improving suitability for Pinot noir. Oeno One, Vol. 56 No. 3

Project: Climate Risk Indicators

• Arnell, N.W., Kay, A.L., Freeman, A., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2020 Changing climate risk in the UK: a multi-sectoral analysis using policy-relevant indicators. Climate Risk Management, 100265
• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., and Gazzard, R. 2021. The effect of climate change on indicators of fire danger in the UK. Environmental Research Letters
• Arnell, N.W., and Freeman, A. 2021. The effect of climate change on agro-climatic indicators in the UK. Climatic Change
• Arnell, N., and Freeman, A. 2021. The impact of climate change on policy-relevant indicators of temperature extremes in the United Kingdom. Climate Resilience and Sustainability
• Kay, A.L., Griffin, A., Rudd, A.C., Chapman, R.M., Bell, V.A. and Arnell, N.W. 2021. Climate change effects on indicators of high and low river flow across Great Britain. Advances in Water Resources, 151.
• Arnell, N.W. & Freeman, A. 2021. The impact of climate change on policy relevant indicators on temperature extremes in the United Kingdom. Climate Resilience and Sustainability.
• Arnell, N.W., Freeman, A., Kay, A.L., Rudd, A.C., and Lowe, J.A. 2021. Indicators of climate risk in the UK at different levels of warming. Environmental Research Communications, 3.

Project: ClimaCare: Climate resilience of care settings

• Oikonomou, E., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., and Gupta, R., 2020. R104: ClimaCare: Climate resilience in care settings. CIBSE
• Ibbetson, A., Milojevic, A., Mavrogianni, A., Oikonomou, E., Jain, N., Tsoulou, I., Petrou, G., Gupta, R., Davies, M., Wilkinson, P., 2021. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat. Climate Risk Management, 100307

Project: ClimaCare: Governing the climate adaptation of care settings

• Oikonomou, E., Mavrogianni, A., Davies, M., and Gupta, R., 2020. R104: ClimaCare: Climate resilience in care settings. CIBSE
• Ibbetson, A., Milojevic, A., Mavrogianni, A., Oikonomou, E., Jain, N., Tsoulou, I., Petrou, G., Gupta, R., Davies, M., Wilkinson, P., 2021. Mortality benefit of building adaptations to protect care home residents against heat risks in the context of uncertainty over loss of life expectancy from heat. Climate Risk Management, 100307

Project: UK Socioeconomic Scenarios for Climate Research and Policy

• Merkle, M., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Seo, B., Harrison, P.A., Harmáčková, Z.V.; Pedde, S. and Rounsevell, M., 2022. Downscaling population and urban land use for socio-economic scenarios in the UK. Regional Environmental Change. 22, 106
• Pedde, Simona; Harrison, Paula A., Holman, Ian P., Powney, Gary D., Lofts, Stephen; Schmucki, Reto; Gramberger, Marc and Bulock, James M., 2021: Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment. 756, 143172
• O’Neill, Brian C. et al: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change. November 25 2020.
• Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Simona Pedde, James M. Bullock, Ornella Dellaccio, Jennifer Dicks, George Linney, Magnus Merkle, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Jon Stenning, Paula A. Harrison, Improving regional applicability of the UK shared socioeconomic Pathways through iterative participatory co-design, Climate Risk Management, Volume 37, 2022, 100452.

Project: Improving Climate Hazard Information

• Cotterill, D.F., Pope, J.O. and Stott, P.A. 2022. Future extension of the UK summer and its impact on autumn precipitation. Climate Dynamics.
• Cotterill, D., Stott, P., Christidis, N., Kendon, E., 2021. Increase in the frequency of extreme daily precipitation in the United Kingdom in autumn. Weather and Climate Extremes. 33.
• Brown, S. J., 2020. Future changes in heatwave severity, duration and frequency due to climate change for the most populous cities. Weather and Climate Extremes. 30.
• McCarthy, M., Christidis, N., Dunstone, N., Fereday, D., Kay, G., Klein Tank, A., Lowe, J., Petch, J., Scaife, A., Stott, P., 2019, Drivers of the UK summer heatwave of 2018, Weather, 74, 11
• Kay, G., Dunstone, N., Smith, D., Dunbar, T., Eade, R., Scaife, A., 2020. Current likelihood and dynamics of hot summers in the UK. Environ. Res. Lett. 15 094099
• Thompson, V., Dunstone, N.J., Scaife, A.A. et al. 2017. High risk of unprecedented UK rainfall in the current climate. Nat Commun 8, 107

Project: Improving Climate Hazard Information:Digitization of observations

• Craig, P.M. and Hawkins, E., 2020. Digitizing observations from the Met Office Daily Weather Reports for 1900-1910 using citizen scientist volunteers. Geoscience Data Journal

Project: Coastal resilience in the face of sea level rise: Making the most of natural systems

• Masselink, G. and Lazarus, E.D., 2019. Defining coastal resilience. Water. 11. 
• Townend I.H., French J.R., Nicholls R.J., et al. 2021. Operationalising coastal resilience to flood and erosion hazard: A demonstration for England. Science of The Total Environment. 783: 146880
• Lazarus E.D., Aldabet S., Thompson C.E.L., et al. 2022. The UK needs an open data portal dedicated to coastal flood and erosion hazard risk and resilience. Anthropocene Coasts. 4(1): 137-146

Project: IMPRES: Impacts and risk assessment to better inform resilience planning

• A T Kennedy-Asser, O Andrews, D M Mitchell and R F Warren, 2021 Evaluating heat extremes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. 16 014039

Project: FUTURE-DRAINAGE: Ensemble climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage

• Xilin, X. et al. 2019. A full-scale fluvial flood modelling framework based on a high-performance integrated hydrodynamic modelling system (HiPIMS). Advances in Water Resources. 132.
• Li, Q. et al. 2020. A novel 1D-2D coupled model for hydrodynamic simulation of flows in drainage networks. Advances in Water Resources. 137.
• Dale Murray. 2021. Managing the effects of extreme sub-daily rainfall and flash floods—a practitioner’s perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190550.
• Ming, X., Liang, Q., Xia, X., et al. 2020. Real-time flood forecasting based on a high-performance 2-D hydrodynamic model and numerical weather predictions. Water Resources Research, 56, e2019WR025583.
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219

Project: FRANTIC: Financial risk and the impact of climate change

• Mercure, JF. 2019. Toward risk-opportunity assessment in climate-friendly finance. One Earth. 1, pp. 395-398.
• Semieniuk, G, Campiglio, E, Mercure, J-F, Volz, U, Edwards, NR. 2021. Low-carbon transition risks for finance. WIREs Clim Change. 12:e678.

Project: Erosion hazards in river catchments: Making critical infrastructure more climate resilient 

• Li, X. et al. 2019. A stochastic approach to modelling tidal creek evolution: Exploring environmental influences on creek topologies through ensemble predictions. Geophysical Research Letters. 46, pp. 13836-13844.
• Li, X., Cooper, J.R., Plater, A. J. 2021. Quantifying erosion hazards and economic damage to critical infrastructure in river catchments: Impact of a warming climate. Climate Risk Management.

Project: From climate hazard to climate risk

• Kause, A. et al., 2020. Communications about uncertainty in scientific climate-related findings: A qualitative systematic review. Environmental Research Letters DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abb265
• Kause, A., Bruine de Bruin, W., Fung, F., Taylor, A., Lowe, J. et  al. 2020. Visualizations of Projected Rainfall Change in the United Kingdom: An Interview Study About User Perceptions.  Sustainability, 12 (7), 2955.
• Garry, F., Bernie, D., Davie, J., Pope, E. 2021. Future climate risks to UK agriculture from compound events. Climate Risk Management for inclusion in Special Issue on UK Climate Risk Assessment and Management.
• Hanlon, H.M., Bernie, D., Carigi, G. et al. Future changes to high impact weather in the UK. Climatic Change 166, 50 (2021).

Project: RESIL-RISK

• Survey Findings Report  (see also outputs for this project under Reports and Briefings)

Project: CROP-NET: Monitoring and predicting the effects of climate change on crop yields

• Wheeler, R., Lobley, M., 2021. Managing extreme weather and climate change in UK agriculture: Impacts, attitudes and action among farmers and stakeholders. Climate Risk Management, 100313

Project: STORMY-WEATHER: Plausible storm hazards in a future climate

• Fowler H.J., Wasko C., and Prein A.F. 2021. Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flood risk: current state of the art and future directions. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190541
• Fowler H.J., Ali H., Allan R.P., et al. 2021. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190542
• Moron V., Barbero R., Fowler H.J. and Mishra V. 2021 Storm types in India: linking rainfall duration, spatial extent and intensity. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200137
• Lenderink G., de Vries H., Fowler H.J., et al. 2021. Scaling and responses of extreme hourly precipitation in three climate experiments with a convection-permitting model. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190544
• Orr H.G., Ekström M., Charlton M. B., Peat K. L. and Fowler H. J. 2021. Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers’ perspective. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20200219
• Wasko C., Westra S., Nathan R., et al. 2021. Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A. 379: 20190548
• Catto, J. L., Dowdy, A. 2021. Understanding compound hazards from a weather system perspective. Weather and Climate Extremes. 32: 100313.

Project: Adaptation & Resilience: Planning & Action for Manchester

• O’Hare, P. (2021) Manchester’s climate risk: a framework for understanding hazards & vulnerability. Manchester, Manchester Climate Change Agency.

Project: A prototype real-time sting jet precursor tool for forecasters

• Gray, S.L., Martínez-Alvarado, O., Ackerley, D. and Suri, D. 2020. Development of a prototype real-time sting-jet precursor tool for forecasters. Weather.

Project: DRAW-IT: Designing Resilient and Adaptable Water management – Integrated & Interactive Tools

• Harou, J. J. 2019. Towards a national water resources planning framework in England. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers – Water Management. 172:6, 271-272.
• J.E. Tomlinson, J.H. Arnott, J.J. Harou. 2020. A water resource simulator in Python. Environmental Modelling & Software. Volume 126, 104635.
• Marzano, R., Rougé, C., Garrone, P., et al. 2020. Response of residential water demand to dynamic pricing: Evidence from an online experiment. Water Resources and Economics, Volume 32, 100169.
• Erfani, T., Pachos, K., Harou, J. J. 2020. Decision-dependent uncertainty in adaptive real-options water resource planning. Advances in Water Resources. Volume 136, 103490.

Project: Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of UK peatland systems

• Ritson, J. P., Alderson, D. M., Robinson, C. H., et al. 2021. Towards a microbial process-based understanding of the resilience of peatland ecosystem service provisioning – A research agenda. Science of The Total Environment. 759: 143467

Project: Unlocking the potential of surface water flood nowcasting for emergency services in a changing climate

• Johnson, S., Yu, D. 2020. From flooding to finance: NHS ambulance-assisted evacuations of care home residents in Norfolk and Suffolk, UK. J Flood Risk Management. 13:e12592
• Yu, D., Yin, J., Wilby, R.L. et al. 2021. Disruption of emergency response to vulnerable populations during floods. Nat Sustain 3, 728–736

Project: Addressing the resilience needs of the UK Health Sector: Climate Service Pilots

• Huang et al., 2022, Non-linear response of temperature-related mortality risk to global warming in England and Wales, Environmental Research Letters, early online  access; https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/ac50d5

Project: ExSAMPLES: Extreme Samples

• Leach et al., 2022, Generating samples of extreme winters to support climate adaptation, Weather and Climate Extremes, https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094722000111?via%3Dihub

Project: OpenCLIM

• A T Kennedy-Asser, G Owen, G J Griffith et al (2022). Projected risks associated with heat stress in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP18). Environmental Research Letters. 17 034024
• K Jenkins, A Ford, C Robson et al (2022). Identifying adaptation ‘on the ground’: Development of a UK adaptation Inventory. Climate Risk Management. 36 100430