Facilitating stochastic simulation for UK Climate Resilience

Weather generators are statistical tools for simulating large numbers of plausible patterns of future weather and climate. This project aims to explore how weather generators could be more widely used to support climate resilience activities in the UK, especially in flood and water management projects.

Background

Weather generators can help to bridge the gap between climate model information and the needs of practical applications. They can provide better sampling of climate variability and extremes, while also downscaling climate projections to locally relevant scales.

However, it is currently difficult to make the best use of weather generators in many real-world resilience projects. This issue stems partly from technical challenges, such as a lack of standardised tools for incorporating state-of-the-art UK climate projections into weather generator simulations. In addition, there are often substantial non-technical barriers to use, including problems in gaining buy-in from regulators and stakeholders.

Partnership

This project will partner Dr David Pritchard from Newcastle University with flood and water management experts at JBA Consulting. The project will explore how to overcome barriers to weather generator uptake by improving available tools and facilitating more interactions between researchers, practitioners and regulators. These issues will be explored through a live project on flood risk in the Thames basin.

Outputs

  • New open weather generator tools, datasets and documentation to support practical applications by a range of practitioners
  • An enhanced set of weather generator simulations under climate change to support resilience planning in the Thames basin
  • Workshops involving practitioners, regulators and other stakeholders to facilitate interactions and knowledge exchange across sectors and organisation
  • Project report detailing experiences, outcomes and recommendations for future work