Introduction
The UK-SSP project has developed shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for the UK, to help answer key questions about the country’s resilience to climate change.
On this page you will find:
- UK-SSP narratives & systems diagrams
- Semi-quantitative trends
- Quantified projections
- Interface for exploring and accessing UK-SSP products
- Relevant publications
View an infographic overview of the project
UK-SSP narratives & systems diagrams
Fact Sheets
Scenario Fact Sheets containing a detailed narrative and system diagram for each of the five UK-SSPs can be viewed by clicking on them below:
Systems diagram videos
Video animations for each of the five scenarios of the UK-SSP project can be watched on YouTube below:
Semi-quantitative trends
This document provides semi-quantitative trends for 50 socio-economic variables within each UK-SSP. Trends are categorised into seven categories (very strong increase, strong increase, slight increase, no change, slight decrease, strong decrease, very strong decrease) across three time periods up to 2100.
Download the data: https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/UK-SSPs-Tables-of-Semi-quantitative-Trends.pdf
Quantified spatial projections
User Manual
Download the user manual for quantifies spatial projections: https://www.ukclimateresilience.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/06/UK-SSPs_Quantification-of-Scenarios_User-Manual_FINAL_Website-version.pdf
Database of Socioeconomic Projections
This database includes detailed quantified projections for 25 key socioeconomic variables within each UK-SSP. Projections are available at various spatial resolutions, ranging from 1km level to UK total, depending on the variable in question.
Download the database through the link here: Met Office – Socioeconomic projections – OneDrive (sharepoint.com)
Opensource Tool for Regridding Data
This tool provides access to essential python libraries for geospatial analysis (e.g. Geopandas, shapely, and pyproj). It provides a workflow to take the quantified projections data and interpolate/aggregate the data to specified output grids.
Download the tool: https://cambridgeeconometrics-my.sharepoint.com/:u:/g/personal/js_camecon_com/Ebg-A4TU1qlEm4CvEUy8Ti4BpLZ46wKUuJRFCB_Tsy6a1w
Interface for exploring and accessing UK-SSP products
The various products detailed above can also be accessed through an interface for each UK-SSP. The interfaces allow for easy exploration of each scenario, including scenario narratives, descriptions of key socioeconomic drivers, links between drivers, downloadable data and maps. Click below to access UK-SSP1, from which you can also access each of the other UK-SSPs. (Clicking on ‘Full screen insight’ expands the view.)
Publications
- Merkle, M., Dellaccio, O., Dunford, R., Harmáčková, Z.V., Harrison, P.A., Mercure, J-F., Pedde, S., Seo, B., Simsek, Y., Stenning, J., Rounsevell, M., 2023. Creating quantitative scenario projections for the UK shared socioeconomic pathways. Climate Risk Management, Volume 40, 100506.
- Brown, C., Seo, B., Alexander, P., Burton, V., Chacón-Montalván, E.A., Dunford, R., Merkle, M., Harrison, P.A., Prestele, R., Robinson, E.L., Rounsevell, M., 2022. Agent-Based Modeling of Alternative Futures in the British Land Use System. Earth’s Future, Volume 10, Issue 11.
- Merkle, M., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Seo, B., Harrison, P.A., Harmáčková, Z.V.; Pedde, S. and Rounsevell, M., 2022. Downscaling population and urban land use for socio-economic scenarios in the UK. Regional Environmental Change. 22, 106
- Zuzana V. Harmáčková, Simona Pedde, James M. Bullock, Ornella Dellaccio, Jennifer Dicks, George Linney, Magnus Merkle, Mark D.A. Rounsevell, Jon Stenning, Paula A. Harrison, 2022. Improving regional applicability of the UK shared socioeconomic Pathways through iterative participatory co-design, Climate Risk Management, Volume 37, 2022, 100452.
The paper below describes the UK-SCAPE versions of the UK-SSPs that the UKCR project has further extended spatially, temporally and sectorally.
- Pedde, S., Harrison, P., Holman, I., et al. 2021. Enriching the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to co-create consistent multi-sector scenarios for the UK. Science of the Total Environment, Volume 756, 143172.
Funding
The project is commissioned by the Met Office and is funded by the UK Climate Resilience Programme. It is carried out by Cambridge Econometrics in collaboration with the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (UKCEH), University of Edinburgh and University of Exeter. The development of the UK-SSPs built upon work carried out by UKCEH’s UK-SCAPE Programme delivering National Capability.
